They can try all they can to prevent whatever they want to prevent, but nature is going to run its course, no matter what, Tisdell said. Tom Wolf overstepped his boundaries during the pandemic. Copyright 2000 - 2023 The Epoch Times Association Inc. All Rights Reserved. In particular, recent research which identified nineteen bellwether counties found that they "tended to be whiter, older, less educated, have lower median incomes, have a lower percentage of workers in the labor force, and have higher rates of vacant housing than the country as a whole." Its education level is a little lower25 percent have a bachelors degree or higher, compared to, nationally. Second, when we examine a short string of elections, we do indeed, find that some counties go with the winner in all (or virtually all the elections). It was easy. And yet, the belief in bellwether states or counties as predictors of US presidential elections is a phoenix that is constantly being reborn. The economy and good-paying jobs always have been an issue up here.. Sawyer County, Wisconsin, and Clallam County, Washington, have substantial Native American populations, the authors said. And then theres Vigo Countyin Indianathe quintessential bellwether that has correctly picked the winner in all but two elections since 1888. 2020: Trump - 59.1%, Biden - 38.5. He received his bachelors degree in mechanical engineering from the University of Toledo and a Masters degree in electrical engineering from Northwestern in Illinois. He soon lost his car, because he fell behind on license plate fees. 'I Should Start Voting'. The issues most important to Jacobs are immigration, the health care system, and socialism. We need jobs up here, good-paying full-time jobs, she added. When he became a Christian, he struggled with his unions blind support for Democratic candidates, most of whom arent pro-life, he said. We have to stand and fight for the constitution our forefathers created. I just dont think hes capable of doing the job that its going to require of him.. He considers Trump pro-life. And we just want that to continue. Bobby Tisdell stands in front of his home in West Terre Haute, Vigo County, Ind., on Oct. 20, 2020. Richard Zulch, an Army veteran who served in Vietnam as a combat engineer from 1969 through 1971 and is the quartermaster for Veterans of Foreign Wars Post 4811 in Bowling Green, said he has been able to see the political landscape from both sides of the fence. It could be said that Ottawa County is one of the top bellwether counties in Ohio, if not the country. The Epoch Times spoke with some voters in Terre Haute and surrounding towns on Oct. 20 to get a glimpse of the bellwether mood ahead of the presidential election. Vance. Farming also is huge here. Two states have announced recounts. The issues most important to Fannin include the economy, border security, and the virus. In the May 3 primary, theres also a mix of familiar names with new candidates on the ballot. Those counties were: Warren County, Ill. Vigo County, Ind. He isnt so sure about Biden. Myerss morals include being respectful to others, and he thinks Trump has failed in that regard. We have become so divided. And just a few miles outside the countys urban center of Terre Haute, youll find a sprawl of soybean and corn farms, with a rural demographic that often leans Republican. The county, located along the Illinois border, has a mix of rural and urban demographics. For example, across seven elections, we would expect to see 28 bellwether counties. Enforce the ones that you do have, he said. They also found that high scoring counties do exhibit a geographic trend. This year, Vigo went for Trump by nearly 15 points, roughly the same as in 2016. Bellwethers must make correct predictions regardless of which party wins election, but polarization makes it increasingly likely that counties will split into ones that vote regularly for a Republican or for a Democratic presidential nominee.
bellwether counties epoch times Bellwether counties are mostly a matter of chance and are now - USAPP Growth in recent years has been a challenge, if not nonexistent, he said. He says hes going to vote for the lesser of two evils.. Hes probably the best candidate out there for whats going on in our country right now, Martin said. I cant lead that kind of lifestyle.. I believe in what they call entitlement programs, Hamilton said. Rob Portmans seat, Coppeler said. An Emerson poll conducted shortly before Election Day was completely off, showing Trump and Biden neck and neck. He didnt vote in 2016 either. There are 22 counties in the US that managed to vote for the winning party in every single election from 1988 to 2016. Just two have populations in excess of 100,000, the authors said. We have so many units that need to be repaired and we cant get the parts. This includes personalizing content and advertising. Over the past nearly 40 years, presidential elections have observed an intriguing phenomenon: 19 counties in the nation have always voted for the winner, be it Republican or Democrat. Sawyer County, Wisconsin, and Clallam County, Washington, have substantial Native American populations, the authors said. While these are the top bellwether counties, there are many more that are considered to be predictive. Here, a farming operation is pictured in Bowling Green, Ohio in Wood County, a bellwether county in America's Heartland experiencing problems such as inflation and high gas prices, affecting every day life. I trust the system implicitly, he said. Ottawa County in Ohio has been on target every four years since 1964, and Bexar County in Texas (San Antonio) has had only one miss since 1928 (preferring the Democrat Hubert Humphrey in 1968). Thats about 43 percent of the eligible voters in the country, according to a study of nonvoters overseen by professors at Tufts University and Stony Brook University. People are so worked up about it all the time, stressed out. From 1980 to 2012, for instance, these bellwether counties consistently voted within a few points of the national popular vote. No one who spoke to The Epoch Times had anything positive to say about Wolfs continued shutdowns in the state. Bellwether County Portends a Red Pennsylvania in 2020 Election Carol Jacobs in Ridgway, Elk County, Penn., on Sept. 17, 2020. . Many of its residents include farmers, retirees who love to fish, and more than 3,300 military veterans. As Figure 1 shows, with roughly 3600 counties, the number of counties which correctly predict the elections outcome can be non-trivial even for relatively long sequence of elections when the probability of a correct prediction is exactly 50 percent, i.e., a coin flip. I think we needed somebody like him.. Theyre scared. Nestled along Lake Erie in the northwest of. (Charlotte Cuthbertson/The Epoch Times) By Charlotte. Election bellwether counties in the United States are counties that vote in alignment with the country as a whole in United States presidential elections, so that the county votes for the candidate who ultimately wins the election. Hamilton had already cast his vote for Biden on the first day of early voting. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. And then you have the Biden folks that are like, This is just nutty,' he said. It was everything, all at once, all of a sudden. The farther we get from the November election, the more time data analysts and others have to examine the most unlikeliest of election victories by Democrat Joe Biden. In 2020, amid widespread accusations of Democrat cheating, these bellwethers were not even close checking in at a mind-blowing 6%! I think Trump was the better president, said Beggs, who worked for the city for 45 years. The Fall of the Bellwether Counties This article is part of a series on Identifying Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis. The counties are also mostly small and rural. His message to Trump is: Shut up and quit twittering. Its the rural American, pro-life, pro-Second Amendment county that gave the edge to Barack Obama in 2008. The last time Ottawa County deviated from its winning choice for president was in 1960 when the county supported Republican Richard Nixon, but Democrat John F. Kennedy won. In a video posted to Twitter on Thursday, Trump 2020 Campaign Senior Advisor for Strategy Steve Cortes took a deep dive into the 2020 election data regarding President Donald Trump's overwhelmingly dominant performance in the United States' bellwether counties, adding to the statistical improbability of a Joe Biden electoral victory. We live in an evenly divided nation, and the past five presidential elections demonstrate that well with their extremely close outcomes, Bergbower, an associate professor at Indiana State University, said in an email to The Epoch Times. Swept up in unproven voter fraud claims, the Shasta County Board of Supervisors has upended the county's election process, canceling its contract with . State residents are awaiting a ruling from the Ohio Supreme Court about whether it will approve the newly proposed congressional map that the Ohio Redistricting Commission submitted to the high court earlier this month. Supply chain issues also have plagued the restaurant industry, not just with food such as chicken and other meats, but also supplies, Chamberlin said. Required fields are marked *. I just think theres going to be a lot of problems if he doesnt become our president all the violence and the riots. County residents had voted for the presidential candidate who won the White House for nearly 60 years, since Democrat Lyndon Johnson won in 1964, according to the Ottawa County Board of Elections. They've been dubbed "bellwether counties" and until this year,. Bellwethers ability to predict the winner has been attributed to a large population of voters willing to switch party preference from one election to the next. Its just too depressing, too much bad and evil going on in the world, Shepherd told The Epoch Times. This belief in the efficacy of small numbers is probably strengthened by the fact that a random sample of only 2,000 or so voters is considered by statisticians large enough to predict election results in an electorate of well 140 million or so at least if the sample is truly random and the respondents are not lying either about their preferences or the likelihood that they will vote in the election. A bellwether is a leader or an indicator of trends.. They run the gamut from. Trump is challenging the results in several states, alleging fraud, voter suppression, and illegal restrictions on Republican poll watchers. The All-Or-Nothing Bellwether: These are states or counties that choose the national winner every time. Biden has talked both ways, so its hard for me to really grasp where he is on the issue. I hope.. Supreme Court nominees also matter a lot to Myers in this election. He likes how the Democratic Party helps lower-income people. 0:00 0:00. High scoring bellwether counties in these regions tend to border other high-scoring counties, unlike their counterparts in the South and West, which tend to see high scoring bellwethers somewhat isolated from each other. Given the global context of Russias invasion of Ukraine, they believe higher gas prices and inflation is coming, and theyre not happy about it.
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