2016 bellwether counties

From 1980 to 2016, 19 counties voted for the winner of the presidential election every single time. It won't be enough for Trump; he also needs to likely win by more than Romney did in Brown (Green Bay) and drive up turn out in Waukesha, one of the reddest and most populous counties in the state. The table shows the number of counties that voted for the winning candidate since the 1988 election. In 132 years, no president has received more votes in his run for reelection and lost. Racine County2016 primary winners: Sanders, Cruz, Latest voter registration totals: 113,599No party registration. The most impressive of those was Valencia County, New Mexico, which voted for the victor in. It went for Romney 54 to 44 percent, nearly reflecting the overall margin. "They followed through the whole four years. Trumps local ties notwithstanding, Clinton is likely to run up her numbers here in the northernmost part of the South Florida region. Republicans are bullish that the suburban county will stay in their column this time, in part because of frustration with Washington. (From a purely random statistics perspective, there should only be 1 or 2 standing. Free and open-source. If Trump can't win back or cut into margins in places like Prince William, Fairfax and Loudon, he likely can't win the state. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 57%-41% - 2008: McCain 55%-44%. The Most Important Counties to Watch on Election Night. (Needless to say that if the tables were reversed, we would hear no end of the significance of bellwether counties in the media.). 1 County 61947 People 2012 Predicting since One county. He will need to cut into Clintons advantage here in North Carolinas second-most populous county since Clinton is likely to roll up the score in Democratic Mecklenburg County (Charlotte). Four years later, Caswell is still looking for a second act for its . We further relaxed the constraint by introducing the switch county. Election night is going to be information overload. 2. Affluent, well-educated Wake County, home to Raleigh and part of the Research Triangle, was once Republican territory. But its also home to the largest concentration of registered Republicans in the state. They're just facts about the vote. Now imagine getting 21 out of 22! It's whiter and less Hispanic than the rest of the state, but it has a higher share of residents with college degrees. Sitting at the same Kozy Corners diner table that president Barack Obama ate from when on his own re-election campaign in July 2012, Mr Brikmanis, a lawyer, believes local Democrats' failure to get votes is also linked to the broader economic decline being experienced by rural and rust belt communities across the Midwest. Take the time to ponder and realize that this is no mean feat! [How Much Did COVID-19 Affect The 2020 Election?]. If there's a place to watch in the state that could tip it toward Clinton is college towns like Ogden in Weber County, home to Weber State. The highest percentage being 66.1%. Seven counties, including Vigo, have got it right in the past dozen elections. Donald Trump is highly unlikely to win here -- Democrats have a big voter registration advantage in this county where Trump owns one of his many homes. Trump needs to drive up the score in Cobb, which provided more votes than any other county for Mitt Romney in 2012. Feel free to forward a link to your elected officials as well. Democrats Woodrow Wilson, John F. Kennedy, Bill Clinton and Grover Cleveland (twice) won elections while losing ground in the House, per The Atlantic. It abuts Clevelands Cuyahoga County to the east and went narrowly to Mitt Romney in 2012. Dave Wasserman, who analyzes election data for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, told the Wall Street Journal that ticket-splitting appeared to make "a fashion comeback in many places.". there are signs that the progress he made there in 2016 winning the county by about 1.5 percentage points after Obama carried it by 16 points . | AP Photo, By Darren Samuelsohn, Katie Glueck, Kyle Cheney and Daniel Strauss. Democrats also have to win big in Mecklenburg (Charlotte), Guilford (Greensboro), Durham and Buncombe (Asheville). Just a tiny fraction of them truly matter. 10. Her running mate Tim Kaine the former Richmond mayor and Virginia governor could make a difference here, Latest voter registration totals: 230,236No party registration, Loudoun County flipped from red to blue in 2008, when Barack Obama won it and held it in 2012. The Bellwether County to Watch in Pennsylvania . The question is just how big of a margin she can run up here -- where roughly two-thirds of the states presidential votes were cast in 2012 -- to offset Trumps victories across much of the rest of the state. I would love to see Clinton or Kaine hold a truckstop rally and appeal to those guys., Latest voter registration totals: 146,952No party registration. 8. "It wasn't part of his strategy.". Re-doing the analysis we obtain 35 modern bellwether counties after the 2016 election. Copyright 2023 HotAir.com/Salem Media. "This process allows for the identification and correction of any mistakes or errors.". It went Republican in 2012; if Clinton is doing better or vice-versa there compared to Obama, it could be a sign of things to come. Other counties to watch: Palm Beach and Miami-Dade are both places where Clinton has to drive up the score. Dont simply gloss over this. 03:30. Really stop reading. Jeff. 7. There are a total of 3,142 counties or county equivalents in the United States.[1]. Utah (6 electoral votes) - Likely Republican. Just one Clallam County, Washington voted for President Joe Biden. Ultimately, of course, Trumps strong performance in these counties didnt matter because of Bidens gains in the more highly educated suburbs of Milwaukee, Grand Rapids and Philadelphia. It went with the exact margin for Romney in 2012 statewide and McCain statewide in 2008. In Westmoreland County, Virginia - a small, rural community south of Washington DC that's failed to be a bellwether only twice since 1928, and is home to twice the number of African Americans than the national average - he beat Mr Biden by 16 points. It has gone with the statewide winner in every presidential election since 2000. Potential canaries in the coal mine, aside from Montgomery, include Wood, south of Toledo, and Stark, home to Canton and the pro-football Hall of Fame in northeastern Ohio. You should now have a real tangible sense of how difficult it is to get a streak of 10. Again, youll appreciate the results when you dig some of them up yourself. Asingle county could have as few as 88 residents,like Kalawao County, Hawaii. Colorado (9 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. Here is a quick recap of what we have established so far: We will now introduce another new concept, called a switch county. Side note Could the Florida Keys tell us who wins? If Clinton can carry Henrico, it will help offset nearby Chesterfield County, the slightly larger and more Republican-oriented Richmond suburb. To do so, the popular vote winner of each county for every presidential election from 1980 through 2016 was tabulated and mapped, yielding 19 true bellwether counties for the period. They were particularly representative in 2012, when the average 1980-to-2016 bellwether county was just 0.8 points more Democratic than the nation. Here, local Republican candidates fuelled by Mr Trump's firebrand style almost wiped Democrats off the local political map. Watauga has gone for the winner statewide in each of the last three presidential elections and three Senate races since 2008. Due to health and time constraints of our original contributors and a lack of volunteers to replace them, we haven't been able to keep pace with the further reports and findings after May 2022, including the Nov 2022 Mid-Term Elections, during which, sadly, many of the same irregularities and potential fraud occurred. There are numerous theories about why it happened in 2020. We believe this was a mistake. 4. Contributors wanted After you have spent an hour trying, record the maximum streak length you achieved. Still, the state's worth watching. Tampa's Hillsborough County is a top bellwether -- since 1960, no candidate has won Florida . North Carolina (15 electoral votes) - Toss-up. BELLWETHER, a documentary web-series, will cover the 2016 presidential election through the eyes and experiences of voters in Terre Haute and Vigo County, the most consistently accurate "bellwether" in the nation. Hillsborough made up more than half that margin Obama won the county by 36,000 votes. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 369,734Republicans: 247,029No Party Affiliation: 218,642Others: 30,414. A swing county is a county that voted correctly for the winning party at one election and then voted for the other winning party at the next election. Watauga has gone for. Were not going to just give you the answer, since the significance of the result might be lost on you. (The highest value being again 66.1%). Lets rank these counties from highest to lowest Democrat voting percentages in the 2008 election. Ohio (18 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. Since only Clallam County voted Democrat in 2020, we know they all voted for the Republican party in 2020 and got it wrong. A majority of voters here had backed the eventual winner of presidential elections every time since 1964. In 2020, a single. This article is part of a series on Identifying Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis. a county which has voted Republican in 2004, but swung to the Democrat party in 2008 and then back to the Republican party in 2016. 9. We identified and analyzed the best of the best bellwether counties at predicting an election outcome, and examined their trends in 2020. Trump gave them hope. Not a bad streak. Obama won Monroe County 49.6-49.1 in 2012 and 52-47 in 2008. Kyrsten Sinema's Odds Of Reelection Don't Look Great. Republicans Ulysses S. Grant and William Howard Taft won a majority of the presidential popular vote but lost a handful of seats in House, too. He would have to really drive up big margins in the less populous counties in the mountainous Western part of the state, as well as Chesterfield (south of Richmond) and Virginia Beach. Lake County is a perpetual nail-biter. (Go to the bottom of the page. We highlighted the counties that voted the highest for the Democrat party in 2008 as it is a clear indicator of their propensity to vote for the Democrat party. Weeks after Election Day, there have still been no discoveriesof widespread voter fraud. 2016 primary winners: Clinton, Cruz2012: Obama 53%, Romney 46%, Latestvoter registration totals:Democrats: 101,967Republicans: 75,145Unaffiliated:65,344Libertarian: 1,022. For instance, Washington County, Maine the median bellwether county in terms of its share thats non-Hispanic white is 89 percent non-Hispanic white, which is much higher than the overall U.S. population that identifies as such (60 percent). Bellwether counties are already extremely rare, but some bellwether counties are better than others at highlighting a change in sentiment. A total of 35 counties voted for the winner of each presidential election from 1980 through 2012. If Clinton's winning there, it means she's hitting marks with young voters. In 2012, it had nearly half a million more voters in it than every other county in the state combined. Michigan (16 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. It's the wrong question. ET. Sumter County, . Other counties to watch: Remarkably, Obama won every county in this state in 2008. They have a rare and unique property of having a perfect demographic mix that allows them to vote for either party based on the merits of each election, and always get it right. In fact, according to David Wasserman of The Cook Political Report, just 303 counties were decided by single-digit margins in 2016, compared to 1,096 counties that fit that description in 1992. . Also key is Volusia, which represents a large county that has been close to the overall vote. Split-Ticket Voters Helped Biden, Republicans in Nebraska, Maine, Your California Privacy Rights/Privacy Policy. Will they vote for the winner in 2016? Statewide results: 2012: Obama 51%-48% - 2008: Obama 52%-47%. In total, Trump won 18 of the 19 former bellwether counties, winning the average such county by 13.7 points in 2020. Lets quickly recap what we have established so far: In this post we will further relax the constraint by analyzing counties that voted Democrat in 2008 and Republican in 2016 only; that is, the switch counties in the most recent elections. Share your comments below or join the related discussion on Gitlab. As the country's demographics shift and the rural-urban divide becomes more pronounced, the chances appear slim. What's more, in this year's election voters in leading bellwether counties didn't just come out for Donald Trump marginally; they backed him in droves. Or even better, if you have children, get them to do it for you. It has a slightly higher Hispanic population than Jefferson County 19 percent, according to the Census which makes it an uphill challenge for Donald Trump. While Bill Clinton was in town recently to open up a Democratic campaign office, party leaders are skeptical they can win here with Hillary Clinton on the ticket. The statistic on counties comes from a report bytheBrookings Institution on Nov. 10. This well-educated, high-income and increasingly diverse D.C. exurb (Asians and Latinos togther make up a third of this county) went for Obama twice and roughly reflected the statewide margin. Latestvoter registration totals:Democrats: 521,881Republicans: 248,934Unaffiliated: 66,775Other: 45,567. a suburban Philadelphia county that went for Hillary Clinton in 2016 with 52.6% of the vote, and that . Read about our approach to external linking. More than half of all Americans livein just 143 counties, per the U.S. Census Bureau. Combined, they had more than twice the votes of Denver proper and 30 percent of all the votes statewide. It voted twice for Bush and twice for Obama. "I asked if they were from the Republican Party, and they said they were," she says. 2016 winners: Bernie Sanders (Democratic caucus); Ted Cruz (GOP state convention)2012: Obama 51%, Romney 46%, Latestvoter registration totals:Unaffiliated: 128,938Republicans: 111,374Democrats: 109,140Libertarian: 3,388. 5. Trump, however, needs to drive up the score in Collin (Plano). No county more closely reflected Obama's wins in 2008 and 2012 than Monroe, home to Key West and the rest of the Keys. Considering how many counties there are in the USA (we h. Bucks has three times the voters than its neighboring county to the north. "It gave suburban moderates an opportunity to vent their anger at Trump directly at the top of the ticket but continue to vote for the down-ballot Republicans they liked," he said. A county that voted for the winning party in 1992 (Democrat), 2000 (Republican), 2008 (Democrat) and 2016 (Republican), irrespective of how they voted at the other elections. Bellwether counties in swing states show that the demographic gulf between the Democrats' more urban coalition and the Republicans' base of rural and blue collar whites is poised to grow ever . Here are the top 25 counties which voted over 60% for the Democrat party in 2008, and then voted Republican in 2016: There is no doubt these 25 counties heavily favor the Democrat party. In 2020, a single county in the setkept its perfect recordby tallying a win for Biden. 3. Fact check: What's true and what's false about the 2020 election, Joe Biden says democracy 'proved to be resilient' after Hawaii casts final ballots in Electoral College, Election security officials: 'No evidence voting systems compromised', Disputing Trump, Barr says no widespread election fraud, How Biden managed to win far more votes in 2020 than Obama did in 2008 but far fewer counties. Learn how and when to remove this template message, "How many counties are in the United States? Out of 3,141 counties, there were 22 counties that had successfully voted for the winning candidate in each and every election between 1988 and 2016 (included). Where Did All The Bellwether Counties Go? Watch the Philadelphia suburbs, and that means white women. Trump won the other 18 counties. We welcome any suggestions and content contibutions with credible references that help others understand the key election integrity issues. The fourth-largest county in the state, its home to the Green Bay Packers, which are a huge economic engine. In politics, the term often applies in a metaphorical sense to characterize a geographic region where political tendencies match in microcosm those of a wider area, such that the result of an election in the former region might predict the eventual result in the latter. Arguably, it was 2016 and not 2020 when bellwether counties first showed signs of falling by the wayside, given their dramatic swing to the right in that election. Other swing counties to watch: Monroe and Calhoun. Explore the pages of this site and the links to further reports. More than one-in-four votes cast for Obama and Romney in 2012 came from Hillsborough. 2016 primary winners: Clinton, Trump2012: Obama 50%, Romney 49%, Latestvoter registration totals:Democrats: 192,278Republicans: 182,364Unaffiliated: 40,047Other: 29,484. Clinton needs to be closer to Obama's 57 percent in 2008 than his 55 percent in 2012. It is important to realise these counties have no allegiances whatsoever and will happily vote for whichever party makes the most sense to them based on merit. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 258,050Unaffiliated: 228,638Republicans: 185,694Libertarian: 3,711. It is the only county to go twice for Bush and twice for Obama. hide caption. The matters that way on their minds are real. In an election that will be decided by a relatively small group of pivotal counties within a relatively small set of swing states, POLITICO has selected 25 critical battleground counties that are poised to be difference makers, places that could have a material impact on the presidential election. Some bored statistician or media hack needed something to do one day and decided to see which counties in the country consistently voted for the winning candidate. Please keep this in mind as you continue to read through our bellwether analysis. The county narrowly voted for Bush in 2000 but has gone Democratic in the three presidential elections since then, though never by more than 52 percent. The second-most populous county in the state, northern Nevadas Washoe County is home to Reno. "When I came here in 1989, you couldn't be elected dog catcher if you weren't a Democrat," he says. It is whiter than the rest of the state but has a slightly higher level of college degrees, although still it's just 28 percent. Valencia County is home to a string of towns along the banks of the Rio Grande river in an otherwise largely arid stretch of desert south of Albuquerque. If bellwethers were just a statistical curiosity and purely random, we could expect half of these counties to pick the winning party at the 2020 election. And as was true in 2016, those counties voted substantially to the right of the nation. But Northampton went closely with the statewide margin in 2012. We already claimed that bellwether counties are a lot more than statistical curiosities, but lets assume for the time being that normal rules of probability apply. At one end of the I-4 corridor, Tampas Hillsborough County is a top bellwether -- since 1960, no candidate has won Florida without winning Hillsborough. Ottawa County wasn't the only swing county to get the outcome wrong this time around. In other words, it's not whether Clinton wins Hillsborough that's important, but by how much. On Dec. 1, formerAttorney General William Barr also told the Associated Pressthe U.S. Justice Department had uncovered no such evidence. It gets a lot more interesting. 2023 BBC. (You can make up your own mind on what the trends mean.). This one of 99 counties made up 16 percent of Obama's total vote in 2012. From his tweet: From 1984 through 2016, spanning presidential elections, seventeen US counties in several states ad voted for the winning presidential candidate in an astounding 148 of 153 times including 100% five times for five different presidents: Advertisement - story continues below 1984 Reagan 1996 Clinton 2000 Bush 2012 Obama 2016 Trump If it is not demographically representative counties or politically competitive counties which are the bellwethers, why then do we find bellwethers? Ultimately, of course, Trumps strong performance in these counties didnt matter because of Bidens gains in the more highly educated suburbs of Milwaukee, Grand Rapids and Philadelphia. Latest voter registration totals: Democrats: 116,093Republicans 89,644Unaffiliated: 86,703. Trump is making a hard play here; His first visit to Iowa after accepting the nomination at the Republican National Convention was in Scott County. Home to Tipton (population 3,199), Cedar has gone with the winner of every presidential and Senate race since 1992. It far surpasses any statistical explanation, because at the end of the day we are dealing with real people, with real personalities, concerns and aspirations, which happen to align perfectly with the whole American population. "Mathematically impossible," wrote a user who shared it on Facebook. This Gulf Coast county is home to Tampa and has gone with the statewide winner in every presidential election since 1960. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 54%-45% - 2008: Obama 57%-41%. "We call them bellwethers because there's some fluke statistic, sometimes they are the right mix of different demographics. 108,000 people. 2016 winners: Bernie Sanders (Democratic caucus); Ted Cruz (GOP state convention) . Suburban Denvers Arapahoe and Jefferson counties have moved in tandem for the past four elections. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-46% - 2008: Obama 54%-44%. Scott Walker all three times his name appeared on the ballot. First, what are bellwether counties? @ryanmatsumoto1, Donald Trump (1624 posts) "Biden did well in virtually all of the most populous counties in the U.S., which, along with a larger electorate explains why he defeated Donald Trump by over 7 million votes, despite carrying many fewer counties," Smith wrote. While Clinton has family ties to the coal-producing region her father was born in neighboring Scranton mid-July polling from a GOP pollster suggests Trump is winning big here. So, where are the bellwether counties? It almost became religious.". "End of day, the solution is complicated but the problem is very simple," wrote a user who shared the meme on Instagram. Will Democrats Rally Behind President Biden In 2024? Find the answer by searching politico.com/2020-election/results. We will only focus on the most recent elections to increase the pool of counties to analyze.). Here are the counties that consistently voted more than 50% for the winning party since the 2000 election: To make things a little more interesting we will relax the constraints a little to include modern bellwether counties, that is, counties that have voted for the winning candidate since 1992. When is Eurovision and how do you get tickets? Iowa (6 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. If they are tipping to Clinton, it's over. Click on the relevant state then look for the county name.). Wood County is a decent bellwether of the state: Mr. Trump carried it by eight points in 2016, matching his statewide margin. Hamilton is ringed by heavily Republican Butler, Warren and Clermont counties, and it shares a border with Indiana, which is giving hope to GOP officials who think Trumps running mate, Indiana Gov. Also key is Larimer (Fort Collins). In at least three of the past four elections, county differed . A majority of voters here had backed the eventual winner of presidential elections every time since 1964. In other words, how strongly do they swing to the winning party? (The highest value being 66.1%), When sorted from the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (at the 2008 election), we can see that there are 25 counties that have a percentage Democrat vote greater than 60% at the 2008 election. This website merely reports on substantial allegations made by well-known public figures, elected officials, members of congress, and their legal teams, and will correct errors when notified. It will keep them entertained for hours, and you can tell them it is for a good cause. In fact, they became even more Republican the average bellwether county from 1980 to 2016 voted 18.2 points to the right of the nation. The odds of 21 counties out of 22 missing the mark is extremely remote! Florida (29 electoral votes) - Toss-up. But since it's gotten so much attention this cycle with the possibility that independent Evan McMullin siphons off votes from Trump, we kept it in here. President-elect Biden on Electoral College vote: Clear victory. These former bellwether counties are much whiter and less college-educated than the country as a whole. What results did you discover? George W. Bush twice won comfortably in Forsyth County, the home of Winston-Salem. Arapahoe County. Warren and Henry Counties appear to be the least swingy of those counties from 2008 to 2012. Obama won comfortably here in 2008 but only squeaked to victory four years later. A few counties in America are known as the "bellwether counties": Those locations that always end up voting for the candidate who ultimately wins in the presidential election. But in 2020, 18 of these 19 bellwether counties voted for former President Donald Trump. That said, they will look to get out as many voters as they can here to help compensate for expected losses in other northern parts of the state. From 1980 through 2016, there were 19 counties that consistently voted for the eventual president. It's something Joan Day-Baker, chair of Valencia County's Democratic Party, has witnessed first-hand.

Grand Rapids Impound Auction, Security Jobs Abroad With Accommodation, Articles OTHER